In four years, the rate of home loans has increased by one point and it's not over
Personal loans have experienced the largest increase: the consumer credit also took almost a full point. For businesses, the rate of overdraft facilities has renchéri half a point, that of investment loans has remained relatively stable.
The rate of bank loans increases slowly but steadily and the trend is unlikely to change given the current economic and financial environment. For four years, between the second quarter 2008 and first quarter of 2012, they increased on average by 60 basis points as periodic statements made by Bank Al-Maghrib. The average overall, for all categories of loans, increased from 5.92% to 6.52%.
In recent years, it is individuals who have most suffered from rising. The rate of the mortgage, whether medium or long term, fixed or variable rate, increased by nearly one percentage point, from an average of 5.24% in the second quarter of 2008 to 6.19% first quarter 2012 (+95 basis points). The increase is even higher than a point if you go back in the fourth quarter of 2007 when the rate of home loans had fallen to 5.07%, an all time low.
The rate of consumer credit is, himself, fell to its lowest level during the third quarter of 2008, reaching 6.66%. Early 2012, the rate was 7.46%, or 80 basis points more in almost 4 years. Of course, this average of 7.46% cache rates that can reach over 14% (14.19% being the maximum permitted), depending on the type of consumer credit, the customer profile, the nature of the credit agency and the existence or not of a promotional offer.
For businesses, the rate increases were relatively less important. The average equipment loans has indeed changed little: it increased by 20 basis points in four years, moving to 6.16%. As for overdraft facilities, their rates increased 67 basis points to 6.56%, knowing that he has experienced two periods of strong growth: late 2008-early 2009 and throughout 2011.
Bank rates had reached their lowest levels between 2007 and 2008
The trend, regardless of the type of credit or the beneficiary, has clearly been rising in recent years, and this is due to several factors, chief among which is the drying up of liquidity. Before 2007, the banking market was indeed due to a structural surplus of foreign currency comfortable mattress, which had led to a significant easing of lending rates. Even when the demand of economic agents on the increased funding, whether individuals, companies or the State through the Treasury, the abundance of liquidity was such that the rates continued to decline. The latter, which exceeded 10% during the 1990s, had finally reached their lowest levels between 2007 and 2008, since the transmission of monetary market conditions and bond to the conditions for granting credits to the economy lasts for one semester.
And this is from 2007 that the context has changed completely. The excess liquidity in the banking system has turned into a structural deficit caused by lower foreign currency assets following the soaring prices of imported raw materials. In parallel, the state in order to keep prices of essential commodities unchanged, had to increase its borrowing in the domestic market to finance its deficit. Result: an upward pressure was exerted on the money and bond markets, and with a delay of several months on the rate of bank loans. The kickoff of the increase was given in 2009 by increasing the rate of Bank Al-Maghrib to 3.5% in response to a relatively high inflation rate (3.5%). Following this decision, the banks had decided to increase their rates, especially mortgage loans. Inflation is more subdued, the central bank eventually lower its rate to 3.25%, a half later. However, bank rates remain unchanged, the deficit in the money market is growing worse and Treasury borrowing more than in the past and taking the credit reference rate up.
Finally, in March this year, BAM has again lowered its key rate to 3%. But any decline in bank rates were noted, as several professionals provide. It must be said that despite lower levels of inflation, the monetary situation remains the most degraded: the monetary system deficit reached over 60 billion dirhams, the Treasury borrowing doubled each year compared to the previous and outstanding held by banks, especially on business, growing at double digits. Banks are refinanced certainly cheaper, but the problem of erosion of foreign reserves remains intact, as are the needs of the Treasury still grow and create a crowding out effect. Suggesting that the rate of bank loans continue to rise. Of course, periods of calm will be due to cyclical factors, but the trend remains upward.